s

Publications

Books

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature Switzerland 2019 (second of two editors, with Tommy Bengtsson), 342 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press 1998 (first of four editors, with Jan Lyngstad, Hilde Bojer, and Ib Thomsen), 334 pp. http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-nb_digibok_2010052503035

Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995 (second author, with J.-P. Gonnot and C. Prinz; with contributions by Tommy Bengtsson, Agneta Kruse, and Evert van Imhoff), 235 pp.[pdf]

National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1992 (first editor, with H. Cruijsen), 364 pp. Therein two chapters:
- A comparative analysis of the forecasting process (second author, with H. Cruijsen)
- The future of national population forecasting (second author, with H. Cruijsen)

LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1991 (second author, with E. van Imhoff), 239 pp. [pdf]

Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.

Modelling household formation and dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988 (first editor, with A. Kuijsten and A. Vossen), 298 pp.
Therein two chapters:
- Dynamic household models
- Recurrent issues in dynamic household modelling (first author, with N. Keyfitz)

Papers in peer reviewed journals

Probabilistic demographic forecasts. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018, 1-11. [pdf]

Increasing (but insufficient?) optimism about future life expectancy. NIUSSP 15 October 2018 [pdf]

Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia? (second author, with Ørnulf Borgan). European Journal of Population 2018, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-018-9468-2 . [main text] [supplement]

Befolkning: Statistisk sentralbyrå bør endre praksis og publisere sannsynlighetsprognoser ("Population: Statistics Norway should change its practice and start publishing probabilistic forecasts"). Samfunnsøkonomen 3/2016, 59-66. [pdf]

A combined Brass-Random Walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041. Journal of Population Research, 33(2),2016, 1-27. "Online first" http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y. [pdf]

Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns. International Journal of Forecasting 32(3) 726-735. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.007. [pdf]

Measures for human reproduction should be linked to both men and women (first author, with Krzysztof Tymicki and Vegard Skirbekk). International Journal of Population Research 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/908385. [pdf]

Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe (fifth author, with Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Jakub Bijak, Solveig Christiansen, Jonathan Forster, James Raymer, Peter Smith). Journal of Official Statistics 29(4)2013, 583-607, http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jos-2013-0041 [pdf]

Hvor robust er det nye pensjonssystemet med hensyn til levealdersutviklingen? ("How robust is the new public pension system for life expectancy development?") (first author, with Lisa Keller). Samfunnsøkonomen 06/2013 [doc], http://samfunnsokonomene.no/magasin/samfunnsokonomen-nr-6-2013/?view=xml&id=samf-6-13-594

Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: The case of Denmark and Finland (second author, with Solveig Christiansen). Demographic Research 06/2013; 28:1263. [pdf]

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women (third author, with Joel Cohen and Øystein Kravdal). Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, July 19, 2011 vol. 108 no. 29, 11830-11835 [pdf]

On future household structure (second author, with Juha Alho). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 173(1)2010, 117-143 [pdf]

Norwegian elderly less likely to live alone in the future (first author, with Solveig Christiansen). European Journal of Population 26 2010, 47-72. DOI 10.1007/s10680-009-9195-9 [pdf]

European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years. Population and Development Review 34(1)2008, 137-153. [pdf]

UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries? Population Trends 129 Autumn 2007, 20-30. [pdf]

Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. European Journal of Population (2007) (with Maarten Alders and Harri Cruijsen). [pdf]

New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE 23 (2006) 1-10 (co-authors Juha Alho, Maarten Alders, Harri Cruijsen, Timo Nikander, Dinh Quang Pham). [pdf]

The impact of demographic uncertainty on liabilities for public old age pensions in Norway. New Zealand Population Review 31:1 (2005) 35-50.[pdf]

Hvor lenge kommer vi til å leve? Levealder og aldersmønster for dødeligheten i Norge, 1900-2060 ("How long wll we live? Life expectancy and age pattern of mortality in Norway, 1900-2060"). Økonomiske analyser 6/2005, 43-49 (med Dinh Quang Pham). [pdf]

Time series errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries. International Statistical Review 72(1)2004, 5-18 (first author, with D.Q Pham). [pdf]

Biodiversity: The threat of small households. Nature 421, 30 January 2003, 489-490. [pdf]

Pensjonskommisjonen bør ta usikkerhet i befolkningsutviklingen alvorlig ("The Pension Committee ought to take uncertainty in population trends seriously"). Økonomiske analyser 2/2003, 16-24. [pdf]

Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway. Demographic Research 6-15 May 2002, 409-454. [pdf]

TFR predictions and Brownian motion theory. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 38 (2002), 209-221. [pdf]

Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95. Population Studies 55(2)2001, 149-164. [pdf]

Uncertain population forecasts. Nature 412, 2 August 2001, 490-491. [pdf]

Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility. European Journal of Population 16(1)2000, 41-66 (first author, with Dinh Quang Pham). [pdf]

How accurate are the United Nations' world population projections? Population and Development Review, supplement to Volume 24, 1998, 15-41. [pdf]

Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries. Journal of Official Statistics 13(3)1997, 245-277. [pdf]

Barnløshet i fremtiden - en formell demografisk analyse ("Childlessness in the future - a formal demographic analysis"). Økonomisk Analyse 2/1996, 29-38 (second author, with H. Urdal).

Adjustments of public pension schemes in twelve industrialized countries: Possible answers to population ageing. European Journal of Population 11(4)1995, 371-398 (third author, with J.-P. Gonnot and C. Prinz)[pdf].

Cohort quantum as a function of time-dependent period quantum for non-repeatable events. Population Studies 49(2)1995, 347-352 (first author, with E. van Imhoff). [pdf]

Translation formulae for non-repeatable events. Population Studies 48(2)1994, 341-357. [pdf]

Sensitivity analysis in multidimensional demographic projection models with a two-sex algorithm. Mathematical Population Studies 4(1)1993, 21-36 (second author, with P. Ekamper)[pdf].

Analysing ex-post observed errors in a series of population forecasts. Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 17(4)1991, 411-432. [pdf]

The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia. Journal of Forecasting, 10, 1991, 371-398 (first author, with T. Kucera). [pdf]

On the estimation of multidimensional demographic models with population registration data. Mathematical Population Studies, 2(2)1990, 119-143 (second author, with R. Gill). [pdf]

Static versus dynamic analyses of the interaction between female labour force participation and fertility. European Journal of Population, 4, 1988, 97-116 (third of four authors, with E. Klijzing, J. Siegers, and L. Groot)[pdf].

Recent trends in family and household composition in Europe. European Journal of Population 3, 1987, 297-325 [pdf].

The unpredictability of population trends. Impact Assessment, 4(3-4)1986, 49-80. Special Issue: Methods and Experiences in Impact Assessment, edited by Henk Becker [pdf].

Internal and external consistency in multidimensional population projection models. Environment and Planning A, 17, 1985, 1473-1498[pdf].

Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts. European Journal of Population, 1, 1985, 207-235[pdf].

Contributions

Family projection methods: A review. Pp.277-301 in R. Schoen (ed.) Analytical Family Demography. Cham: Springer International Publishing AG 2018. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93227-9

Vertel me eens, wat heb je hier nu aan? Pp. 30-32 in H. van Dalen en I. Esveldt (eds.) Nico van Nimwegen: The resourceful demographer - Liber Amicorum. The Hague: Ando Publisher 2014. [pdf]

On age structures and mortality. Pp. 23-46 in S. Tuljapurkar, N. Ogawa, and A. Gauthier (eds.) Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves Vol. 3. Dordrecht etc.: Springer 2010. [pdf]

Changing views of future demographic trends. Pp. 11-33 in J. Alho, S. Hougaard Jensen, and J. Lassila (eds.) Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2008 (first author, with H. Cruijsen and J. Alho).[pdf]

Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty. Pp. 34-54 in J. Alho, S. Hougaard Jensen, and J. Lassila (eds.) Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2008 (third author, with J. Alho and H. Cruijsen). [pdf]

Households and families: Developed countries. Pp. 457-476 in G. Wunsch, G. Caselli and J. Vallin (eds.) Demography: Analysis and Synthesis. Elsevier 2006. [pdf]

Demographic translation: From period to cohort perspective and back. Pp. 215-225 in G. Wunsch, G. Caselli and J. Vallin (eds.) Demography: Analysis and Synthesis. Elsevier 2006. [pdf]

Erroneous Population Forecasts. Pp. 7-26 in N. Keilman (ed.) Perspectives on mortality forecasting: Vol II Probabilistic models. Stockholm: Swedish National Social Insurance Board 2005 (Social Insurance Studies 2)[pdf]. An updated and slightly extended version was published under the same title in P. Festy and J.-P. Sardon (eds.) Profession démographe - Hommage à Gérard Calot. Paris: INED 2009.

Types of Models for Projecting Mortality. Pp. 19-28 in T. Bengtsson and N. Keilman (eds.) Perspectives on mortality forecasting: Vol I Current practice. Stockholm: Swedish National Social Insurance Board 2003 (Social Insurance Studies 1).[pdf]

Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area. Discussion Paper 386 August 2004, Statistics Norway (with Dinh Quang Pham) [pdf]

Levealderen - hvor gamle blir vi? ("Life expectancy - How old will we be?") Trygd & Pensjon nr. 3 2004 [pdf]

La traslazione demografica: dalla prospettiva di periodo a quella per generazione e viceversa. Pp 439-461 G. Caselli, J. Vallin, e G. Wunsch Demografia: La dinamica delle popolazioni. Roma: Carocci, 2001

La translation démographique: des indicateurs du moment aux indicateurs de génération et réciproquement. Pp. 359-378 dans G. Caselli, J. Vallin, et G. Wunsch Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Vol. I La dynamique des populations. Paris: Editions de l'Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 2001

Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, eds. Washington DC, National Academy Press, 2000. (Contributions to Chapters 2 (The Accuracy of Past Projections) and 7 (The Uncertainty of Population Forecasts)

Précision et incertitudes des prévisions nationales de population. Pp. 33-67 dans C. Wattelar and J. Duchêne (réd.): Le Défi de l'Incertitude: Nouvelles Approches en Perspectives et Prospective Démographique. Institut de Démographie, UCL Louvain-la-Neuve, Academia-Bruylant/L'Harmattan, 2000

The future of social solidarity in Europe: The demographic background. In G. Gaarder and F. Orban (eds.) Towards flexible welfare states: The future of social solidarity in Europe. Seminar report Europa Qua Vadis III. Oslo: Europa-programmet 1999

Female dominance. Pp. 215-228 in A. Kuijsten, H. de Gans and H. de Feijter (eds.) The joy of demography ….. and other disciplines: Essays in honour of Dirk van de Kaa. Amsterdam: Thela - Thesis Publ., 1998 [pdf]

Optmistische demografen ("Optimistic demographers") Pp. 177-200 in P. Hermkens, R. van Rijsselt en K. Sanders (red.) Maatschappelijke veranderingsprocessen: Sociologische opstellen voor Henk Becker. 1998

Household developments in Europe after World War II: Trends and explanations. Pp. 3-12 in O. Gulbrandsen, B. Moen and N. Keilman (eds.) «Norske husholdninger i forandring». Oslo: Norges forskningsråd, 1997 [pdf]

Households, families and housing. Pp. 25-50 in Demografia: analisi e sintesi. Cause e conseguenze dei processi demografici. Proceedings of the international seminar "Demography: Analysis and Synthesis", Siena, Certosa di Pontignano, April 1996. Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza",. Also appeared in 1997 in revised and translated form as Ménages et familles: application aux pays développés, pp. 163-199 in Démographie: Analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques. Actes du Séminaire international «Demography: Analysis and Synthesis», Sienne, avril 1996. Centre français sur la population et le développement, Paris - Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Roma - Facoltá di Giurisprudenza, Università degli Studi di Siena

The impact of future international migration on household structure and social security expenditures in the Netherlands. Pp. 307-324 in S. Voets, J. Schoorl, B. de Bruijn (eds.) Demographic consequences of international migration. NIDI Reports nr. 44, Chapter 13. The Hague: NIDI, 1995 [pdf] (second author, with E. van Imhoff)

Household concepts and household definitions in Western Europe: Different levels but similar trends in household developments. Pp. 111-135 in E. van Imhoff, A. Kuijsten, P. Hooimeijer, and L. van Wissen (eds.) Household Demography and Household Modelling, Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. New York: Plenum Press, 1995

MOSART-H: A combined micro-macro model for simulation of households. Pp. 435-452 in C. Lundh (ed.) Demography, Economy and Welfare Scandinavian Population Studies vol. 10. Lund University Press, 1995 (second author, with H. Brunborg)

Trends in household developments: Consequences of different definitions. Pp. 133-147 in J. Duchêne and G. Wunsch (eds.) Collecte et Comparabilité des Données Démographiques et Sociales en Europe. Actes de la Chaire Quetelet 1991. Louvain-la-Neuve: Academia L'Harmattan, 1995 [pdf]

Demographic trends and the labour market in the Netherlands. Pp. 201-225 in N. van Nimwegen, J.C. Chesnais and P. Dykstra (eds.) Coping with Sustained Low Fertility in France and the Netherlands, Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1993

Emerging issues in demographic methodology. Pp. 483-508 in A. Blum and J.-L. Rallu (eds.) European Population: Vol.2 Demographic Dynamics/Démographie Européenne: Vol.2 Dynamiques Démographiques. Paris: Éditions John Libbey Eurotext, 1993

Multiregional population projection in the Netherlands. Pp. 59-73 in D. Pumain (ed.) Spatial Analysis and Population Dynamics. Paris: John Libbey Eurotext, 1991 (third author, with P. Drewe, L. Eichperger, F. van Poppel, and F. Willekens) [pdf]

National population projection methods in developed countries. Pp. 465-486 in W. Lutz (ed.) Demographic Futures in Europe and North America: What can we assume today? London: Academic Press, 1991

National population projections in industrialized countries: A review of methodology and assumptions. Pp. 31-41 in OPCS (1990) Population projections: Trends, methods and uses, OPCS Occasional Paper no. 38

Miscellaneous

N. Keilman. Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe. Delivery 2.5 of Work Package 2 “Economic Consequences of Ageing”, MOPACT project. [pdf] See also http://mopact.group.shef.ac.uk/research-posts/householdforecasts/

N. Keilman, C. van Duin. Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares prediction. Memo 10/2014 Department of Economics, University of Oslo. [pdf]

Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View (2008) 7:333-340 [pdf]

Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts. In Willy Østreng (ed.) Complexity: Interdisciplinary Communications 2006/2007 (2008) 22-28 ISBN: 978-82-996367-5-9 [pdf]

J. Alho, M. Alders, H. Cruijsen, N. Keilman, T. Nikander, D.Q. Pham. Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Magazine 1 December 2005 [Statistical Magazine]

N. Keilman (ed.) Perspectives on mortality forecasting: Vol II Probabilistic models. Stockholm: Swedish National Social Insurance Board 2005 (Social Insurance Studies 2).[pdf]

Kronikk om pensjonsreformen, Aftenposten 4. oktober 2004. [Kronikk Aftenposten]

Conséquences démographiques et sociales d’une faible fécondité pour les structures familiales en Europe. Etudes démographiques no 43. Strasbourg: Editions du Conseil de l’Europe.[pdf]

T. Bengtsson and N. Keilman (eds.) Perspectives on mortality forecasting: Vol I Current practice. Stockholm: Swedish National Social Insurance Board 2003 (Social Insurance Studies 1).[pdf]

Demographic and social implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe. Population studies no. 43. Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishing 2003.[pdf]

Keilman, N., D.Q. Pham, and A. Hetland. Norway's Uncertain Demographic Future. Social and Economic Studies no. 105. Oslo: Statistics Norway. [ SES105] 2001

Anton Kuijsten, 1944-2000. Bevolking en Gezin 29(1) 2000, 1-6

Children and time: The Norwegian model. NIDI Hofstee Lecture Series no. 6. The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute 1999

On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Comment. Population and Development Review 26(3), 549-553, 2000. A more detailed version was published under the same title as NIDI Working Paper 1999/2. The Hague: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (second author, with E. van Imhoff).

Book Review of A. Hinde "Demographic Methods". European Journal of Population 16(2), 187-188

Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility. Document no. 98/19, Statistics Norway (first author, with Pham Dinh Quang)

Utvandring blant innvandrere: Flyktninger forblir, mens nordboere reiser hjem («Emigration among immigrants: Refugees stay, while Scandinavians go home again»). Samfunnsspeilet 4/1997, pp. 30-35 (second author, with Tone Tysse)

Framskriving av Folkemengden 1996-2050: Nasjonale og Regionale Tall ("Population Projections 1996-2050: National and Regional Figures"). Norges Offisielle Statistikk. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå, 1997 (first author, with A. Hetland)[pdf]

Birth expectations and their use in fertility forecasting. Eurostat Working Paper no. E4/1997-4, 1997 (second author, with W. van Hoorn)

The accuracy of the United Nation's world population projections. Document no. 97/4, Statistics Norway, 1997. Also published under the same title by The Research Council of Norway, 1997. [pdf]

Household projections for Norway, 1990-2020. Part I: Macrosimulations. Report 95/21. Oslo: Statistics Norway, 1995 (first author, with H. Brunborg).[pdf]

Vi får færre barn enn vi forventer ("We get fewer children than we expect"). Samfunnsspeilet 3/1995, 33-36

Hver 4. nordmann fjernkulturell bakgrunn om 100 år ("One fourth of the population with third world background in 100 years time"). Samfunnsspeilet 2/1995, 8-10

Framskriving av Folkemengden 1993-2050: Nasjonale og Regionale Tall ("Population Projections 1993-2050: National and Regional Figures"). Norges Offisielle Statistikk. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå, 1994 (second author, with I. Texmon and L. Østby) [pdf]

Husholdninger i framtiden: Sterk økning i antall aleneboende ("Households in the future: Strong increase in the number of one-person households"). Samfunnsspeilet 2/94, 16-21

Estimation d'un quotient à l'aide de données agrégées. Research note in Population 1, 1994, pp. 229-232 (second author, with D. Courgeau and E. Lelièvre)

Du fondement et de l'usage des taux. Population 48(2)1993, 423-427. (Invited comment to the article "Les mesures de la fécondité transversale", parts I and II, by J.-L. Rallu and L. Toulemon in issues 48(1) and 48(2).) Also published in English as "Period fertility indices - A comment" in Population: An English Selection 6, 1994, pp. 111-115 [pdf]

Familie og husholdning ("Families and households"). Chapter 8.1 in Sosialt utsyn 1993 ("Social survey 1993"), Oslo: Statistics Norway, 1993 (second author, with T. Noack)

The effects of changing marital status patterns on social security expenditures in the Netherlands. Collaborative Paper no. CP-91-15. Laxenburg (Austria): International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1991 [pdf]

The unpredictability of population trends. In H.A. Becker and A.L. Porter (eds.) Methods and Experiences in Impact Assessment, 1986, 49-80. Dordrecht etc.: Reidel Publ. Co. doi.org/10.1080/07349165.1986.9725778

Document last updated 29 March 2019