University of Oslo Department of Economics


 

 

Papers

Books

Models

Teaching

Talks

Newspaper articles and debate

Data Sets

Biographical

Workshops 

Economic forecasting (2010)

Model evaluation (2005)


 

Ragnar Nymoen

Ragnar Nymoen

Professor of Economics

Teaching

Autumn 2016: ECON 4160-Econometrics, Modelling and Systems Estimation

Model Based Macroeconomic Forecasting

NAM - Norwegian Aggregate Model
NAM

Click the NAM-logo above for latest model based forecasts.

The NAM-documentation (version dated 1 July 2016, updated with data series that end in 2016q1)).

A short presentation of NAM (Ministry of Finance's advisory panel on macroeconomic models and methods, meeting 11 Dec 2015)

Recent papers and notes relating to own forecasting practice and research:

Recent research publications (see left column for Norwegian articles)

Heuristics vs. Formal Dynamics of the Wage- and Price Curve Model of Equilibrium Unemployment, with Dag O. Kolsrud, Journal of Economic Studies, 42, 2, 2015, p 186-206.

Equilibrium unemployment dynamics in a panel of OECD countries, with Victoria Sparrman, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 2015. doi:10.1111./obes.12061  Appendix.

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's business cycle theory,  with Andre Anundsen, Tord Krogh and Jon Vislie,  Metroeconomica, 2014, doi: 10.1111/meca.12049.
 

Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral, with Dag Kolsrud, Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 53, Issue 1-2, June 2014, pp 41 - 68, DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12020


Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, with Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry, Econometric Reviews, 2014, 33:5-6. 553-574,DOI:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137

Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed, with Terje Skjerpen and Tom Kornstad, Economic Modelling, Volume 33, July 2013, Pages 572-587. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.022

The Macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo, with Andre K. Anundsen, Tord. S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Nordic Journal of Political Economy, 37, 2012, Article 2

MOSES: Model for Studying the Economy of Sweden, with Gunnar Bårdsen, Ard den Reijer and Patrik Jonasson, in Economic Modelling, 29, 2012, 2566-2582

Interpreting the Evidence for New Keynesian Models of Inflation Dynamics, with Anders R. Swensen and Eivind Tveter, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 2012, p 253-263

Working Papers and other work in Progress

Have Inflation Targeting and EU Labour Immigration Changed the System of Wage Formation in Norway? with Marit L. Gjelsvik and Victoria Sparrman, 2015

Did US Consumers 'Save for a Rainy Day' before the Great Recession? with Andre K. Anundsen, 2015

Comparative Statics for Real Options on Oil: What Stylized Facts to Use? with Diderik Lund, 2013

Rational inflation forecasts and structural breaks. Does the theory fit the facts? 2014

2005: Evaluating a Central Bank's Recent Forecast Failure (a predecessor to "The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank" with more on the modelling of the 2003 drop in inflation than in the published paper)

2002: Faulty Watch Towers---'Structural' Models in Norwegian Monetary Policy Analysis.