University of Oslo Department of Economics








Newspaper articles and debate

Data Sets



Economic forecasting (2010)

Model evaluation (2005)


Ragnar Nymoen

Ragnar Nymoen

Professor of Economics


Autumn 2015: ECON 4160.

Model Based Macroeconomic Forecasting

NAM - Norwegian Aggregate Model

Click the NAM-logo above for latest model based forecasts.

The latest NAM-documentation (version dated 20 July 2015)

Recent papers and notes relating to own forecasting practice and research:

Recent talks and newspaper articles

Lønnsutsiktene etter "Ramma". Dagens Næringsliv 8 April 2015

Lønnsdannelsessystemet i Norge (Gjesteforelesning i ECON 3010 Universitetet i Oslo). Det såkalte reallønnsgapet var et underpunkt i denne forelesningen.

Recent research publications (see left column for offerings in Norwegian)

Heuristics vs. Formal Dynamics of the Wage- and Price Curve Model of Equilibrium Unemployment, with Dag O. Kolsrud, Journal of Economic Studies, 42, 2, 2015, p 186-206.

Equilibrium unemployment dynamics in a panel of OECD countries, with Victoria Sparrman, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 2014. doi:10.1111./obes.12061  Appendix.

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's business cycle theory,  with Andre Anundsen, Tord Krogh and Jon Vislie,  Metroeconomica, 2014, doi: 10.1111/meca.12049.

Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral, with Dag Kolsrud, Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 53, Issue 1-2, June 2014, pp 41 - 68, DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12020

Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, with Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry, Econometric Reviews, 2014, 33:5-6. 553-574,DOI:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137

Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed, with Terje Skjerpen and Tom Kornstad, Economic Modelling, Volume 33, July 2013, Pages 572-587.

The Macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo, with Andre K. Anundsen, Tord. S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Nordic Journal of Political Economy, 37, 2012, Article 2

MOSES: Model for Studying the Economy of Sweden, with Gunnar Bårdsen, Ard den Reijer and Patrik Jonasson, in Economic Modelling, 29, 2012, 2566-2582

Interpreting the Evidence for New Keynesian Models of Inflation Dynamics, with Anders R. Swensen and Eivind Tveter, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 2012, p 253-263

Haavelmos makromodeller: Endogene konjunkturer og inflasjonsteori, with Andre, K. Anundsen, Tord S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Samfunnsøkonomen, 2011-9, 32--43.

"The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank" with Nina Skrove Falch, in Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-15.

"U.S. Natural Rate Dynamics Reconsidered", with Gunnar Bårdsen, in The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2009.

"Model Selection for monetary policy analysis---How important is empirical validity?" with Q. Farooq Akram, in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009 (1), 35-68. Dataset and program files.

"Macroeconometric modelling for policy”, with Gunnar Bårdsen, in Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics Vol 2, Palgrave Mac-Millan, 2009.

"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve Tested on OECD data", with Roger Bjørnstad, Economics The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 2, 2008-23.

"Consumption and population age structure", with Solveig Erlandsen, Journal of Population Economics, 21(3), 2008, pp. 505-520.

Working Papers and other work in Progress

Comparative Statics for Real Options on Oil: What Stylized Facts to Use? with Diderik Lund, 2013

Rational inflation forecasts and structural breaks. Does the theory fit the facts? 2014

2005: Evaluating a Central Bank's Recent Forecast Failure (a predecessor to "The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank" with more on the modelling of the 2003 drop in inflation than in the published paper)

2002: Faulty Watch Towers---'Structural' Models in Norwegian Monetary Policy Analysis.