University of Oslo Department of Economics








Newspaper articles and debate

Data Sets



Economic forecasting (2010)

Model evaluation (2005)


Ragnar Nymoen

Ragnar Nymoen

Professor of Economics


Autumn 2018: ECON 4160-Econometrics, Modelling and Systems Estimation

Empirical macroeconomic modeling

Norwegian Aggregate Model

The latest version of the NAM documentation

A short presentation of NAM (Ministry of Finance's advisory panel on macroeconomic models and methods, meeting 11 Dec 2015)

"Alle veit jo det". Mytespinn om Phillipskurven.

The winter of 2017 discussion about Statistics Norway models, harks back to:

Faulty Watch Towers-`Structural' Models in Norwegian Monetary Policy Analysis. 2002

Recent research publications (see left column for Norwegian articles)

Forecast Robustness in Macroeconometric Models, with Gunnar Bårdsen and Dag Kolsrud, Journal of Forecasting 2017, 36, 629-639; doi.10:1002/for.2459

Between institutions and global forces. Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation.Econometrics 2017, 5(1), 6; doi:10.3390/econometrics5010006

Heuristics vs. Formal Dynamics of the Wage- and Price Curve Model of Equilibrium Unemploymeent, with Dag O. Kolsrud, Journal of Economic Studies, 42, 2, 2015, p 186-206.

Equilibrium unemployment dynamics in a panel of OECD countries, with Victoria Sparrman, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 2015. doi:10.1111./obes.12061  Appendix.

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's business cycle theory,  with Andre Anundsen, Tord Krogh and Jon Vislie,  Metroeconomica, 2014, doi: 10.1111/meca.12049.

Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral, with Dag Kolsrud, Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 53, Issue 1-2, June 2014, pp 41 - 68, DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12020

Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, with Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry, Econometric Reviews, 2014, 33:5-6. 553-574,DOI:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137

Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed, with Terje Skjerpen and Tom Kornstad, Economic Modelling, Volume 33, July 2013, Pages 572-587.

The Macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo, with Andre K. Anundsen, Tord. S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Nordic Journal of Political Economy, 37, 2012, Article 2

MOSES: Model for Studying the Economy of Sweden, with Gunnar Bårdsen, Ard den Reijer and Patrik Jonasson, in Economic Modelling, 29, 2012, 2566-2582

Interpreting the Evidence for New Keynesian Models of Inflation Dynamics, with Anders R. Swensen and Eivind Tveter, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 2012, p 253-263

Working Papers and other work in Progress

Have Inflation Targeting and EU Labour Immigration Changed the System of Wage Formation in Norway? with Marit L. Gjelsvik and Victoria Sparrman, 2015

Did US Consumers 'Save for a Rainy Day' before the Great Recession? with Andre K. Anundsen, 2015

Comparative Statics for Real Options on Oil: What Stylized Facts to Use? with Diderik Lund, 2013

Rational inflation forecasts and structural breaks. Does the theory fit the facts? 2014

Faulty Watch Towers-`Structural' Models in Norwegian Monetary Policy Analysis. 2002