University of Oslo Department of Economics





Work in Progress

Data Sets

Operational models



Newspaper articles and debate



Economic forecasting (2010)

Model evaluation (2005)


Ragnar Nymoen

Ragnar Nymoen

Professor of Economics


Autumn 2014: Econometrics-Modelling and Systems Estimation

Model Based Macroeconomic Forecasting

NAM - Norwegian Aggregate Model
The Norwegian Association of Economists awarded NAM the price for "best forecasts for the Norwegian macroeconomy in 2012". A talk on that occassion (in Norwegian) is here.

NAM has entered the competition two times before, and has until now been happy to fill in numbers (with two 10th places), in competition with the leading forecasters of the Norwegian macroeconomy. Time will show if there is any consistency in NAM's performance over a larger number of forecast horse races.   

Recent papers and notes relating to own forecasting practice and research:

Recent talk

Lønnsdannelsessystemet i Norge (Gjesteforelesning i ECON 3010 Universitetet i Oslo). Det såkalte reallønnsgapet var et underpunkt i denne forelesningen.

Recent papers

Equilibrium unemployment dynamics in a panel of OECD countries, with Victoria Sparrman, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 2014. doi:10.1111./obes.12061  Appendix.

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's business cycle theory,  with Andre Anundsen, Tord Krogh and Jon Vislie,  Metroeconomica, 2014, doi: 10.1111/meca.12049.

Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral, with Dag Kolsrud, forthcoming in Australian Economic Papers, 2014

Heuristics vs. Formal Dynamics of the Wage- and Price Curve Model of Equilibrium Unemployment, with Dag O. Kolsrud, forthcoming in Journal of Economic Studies, 2015

Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, with Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry, Econometric Reviews, 2014, 33:5-6, 553-574,DOI:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137

Job Probability and Macroeconomic Shocks, with Terje Skjerpen and Tom Kornstad, Economic Modelling, Volume 33, July 2013, Pages 572-587.

The Macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo, with Andre K. Anundsen, Tord. S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Nordic Journal of Political Economy, 37, 2012, Article 2

MOSES: Model for Studying the Economy of Sweden, with Gunnar Bårdsen, Ard den Reijer and Patrik Jonasson, in Economic Modelling, 29, 2012, 2566-2582

Interpreting the Evidence for New Keynesian Models of Inflation Dynamics, with Anders R. Swensen and Eivind Tveter, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 2012, pp 253-263

Haavelmos makromodeller: Endogene konjunkturer og inflasjonsteori, with Andre, K. Anundsen, Tord S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Samfunnsøkonomen, 2011-9, 32--43.

"The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank" with Nina Skrove Falch, in Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-15.

"U.S. Natural Rate Dynamics Reconsidered", with Gunnar Bårdsen, in The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2009.

"Model Selection for monetary policy analysis---How important is empirical validity?" with Q. Farooq Akram, in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009 (1), 35-68. Dataset and program files.

"Macroeconometric modelling for policy”, with Gunnar Bårdsen, in Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics Vol 2, Palgrave Mac-Millan, 2009.

"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve Tested on OECD data", with Roger Bjørnstad, Economics The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 2, 2008-23.

"Consumption and population age structure", with Solveig Erlandsen, Journal of Population Economics, 21(3), 2008, pp. 505-520.

Working Papers and other work in Progress

Comparative Statics for Real Options on Oil: What Stylized Facts to Use? with Diderik Lund, 2013

Rational inflation forecasts and structural breaks. Does the theory fit the facts? 2014

2005: Evaluating a Central Bank's Recent Forecast Failure (a predecessor to "The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank" with more on the modelling of the 2003 drop in inflation than in the published paper)

2002: Faulty Watch Towers---'Structural' Models in Norwegian Monetary Policy Analysis.