Ragnar Nymoen
Professor of Economics
Teaching
Spring 2012: ECON 4150 (Introductory Econometrics) and ECON 4330 (International Macroeconomics)
Forecasts
- Norwegian
Aggregate Model (NAM):
- Forecasts produced in March 2012
- Previous forecasts and evaluations of the forecasts
- The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank
- AIF, Automatized Econometric Inflation forecasts
- Moses, a macroeconomic model for Sweden
Recent papers
Interpreting the Evidence for New Keynesian Models of Inflation Dynamics, with Anders R. Swensen and Eivind Tveter, Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 2012, pp 253-263Haavelmos makromodeller: Endogene konjunkturer og inflasjonsteori, with Andre, K. Anundsen, Tord S. Krogh and Jon Vislie. Samfunnsøkonomen, 2011-9, 32--43.
- A talk about Trygve Haavelmo's macroeconomics (in English)
"The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank" with Nina Skrove Falch, in Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-15.
"U.S. Natural Rate Dynamics Reconsidered", with Gunnar Bårdsen, in The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2009.
"Model Selection for monetary policy analysis---How important is empirical validity?" with Q. Farooq Akram, in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009 (1), 35-68. Dataset and program files.
"Macroeconometric modelling for policy”, with Gunnar Bårdsen, in Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics Vol 2, Palgrave Mac-Millan, 2009.
"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve Tested on OECD data", with Roger Bjørnstad, Economics The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 2, 2008-23.
"Consumption and population age structure", with Solveig Erlandsen, Journal of Population Economics, 21(3), 2008, pp. 505-520.
"Inflasjonsforventninger og pengepolitiske regimer", with R. Bjørnstad and Å. Cappelen. Samfunnsøkonomen, 63 (2), pp 17-29.
Working Papers and other work in Progress
Job Probability and Macroeconomic Shocks, with Terje Skjerpen and Tom Kornstad
Formalizing the Heuristic Dynamics of the Wage-Price Curve Model of Equilibrium Unemployment, with Dag O. Kolsrud.
Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's business cycle theory and its implications for monetary policy,with Andre Anundsen, Tord Krogh and Jon Vislie.
Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, with Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry
MOSES: A Model of Swedish Economic Studies, with Gunnar Bårdsen, Ard den Reijer and Patrik Jonasson
Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral, with Dag Kolsrud
2005: Evaluating a Central Bank's Recent Forecast Failure
2002: Faulty Watch Towers---'Structural' Models in Norwegian Monetary Policy Analysis.