Robbie Andrew

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Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – OsloHome   |   About me   |   Contact me

It's getting harder and harder to limit ourselves to 2°C

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Data Sources

Historical emissions to 2013 from CDIAC/Global Carbon Project.

Methods

Global cumulative CO2 emissions quota of 1000GtC (66% chance of 2°C), adjusted for assumed future non-CO2 and land-use change. Mitigation curves describe approximately exponential decay pathways such that the quota is never exceeded (see Raupach et al., 2014).

Mitigation curves are defined such that the sum of historical cumulative emissions and cumulative emissions following the mitigation curves exactly meets the global emissions quota.

This analysis assumes no net-negative emissions: that is, emissions are always globally positive. But the analysis is agnostic towards whether so-called 'gross-negative' emissions occur. Many IPCC scenarios allow global emissions to be negative before 2100.

Selected media coverage

Dave Roberts, Vox, 15/5/15: The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit

References

Friedlingstein P, Andrew RM, Rogelj J, Peters GP, Canadell JG, Knutti R, Luderer G, Raupach MR, Schaeffer M, van Vuuren DP and others 2014. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets. Nature Geoscience 7: 709-715.
Fuss S, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Tavoni M, Andrew RM, Ciais P, Jackson RB, Jones CD, Kraxner F, Nakicenovic N and others 2014. Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change 4: 850-853.
Raupach MR, Davis SJ, Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P, Jotzo F, QuÚrÚ CL 2014. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nature Climate Change 4(873-879).

Betting on Negative Emissions

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could be used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, its credibility as a climate change mitigation option is unproven and its widespread deployment in climate stabilization scenarios might become a dangerous distraction.Learnámore ╗

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions.Learnámore ╗

Persistent growth of carbon emissions

Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2°C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates.Learnámore ╗

Staying below 2°C

Global emissions are tracking the most pessimistic scenarios used by the IPCC. Glen Peters and colleagues present a comparison of emissions with all four sets of scenarios used by the IPCC since 1990, and argue that inertia in both human systems and the climate system make a 2°C goal harder with every day of inaction.Learnámore ╗


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